CEO confidence retreated in Q4 2021
EditorialRoom 21st December 2021

CEOs’ confidence slipped further in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council
The measure now stands at 65, down moderately from 67 in Q3 2021—and substantially from Q2’s all-time high of 82. (A reading above 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses.) The survey was fielded from November 3rd through November 19th.
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions softened further while CEOs’ view of conditions in their own industries also weakened, with 58 percent reporting better conditions compared to six months ago, down from 64 percent in Q3. Looking ahead, expectations declined moderately in Q4 compared to Q3: 61 percent of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 60 percent. Similarly, 61 percent of CEOs anticipate short-term prospects in their own industries to improve, down from 65 percent.
“CEO confidence slipped further in Q4, as business leaders continued to wrestle with the economic aftermath—and ongoing social impacts and scientific uncertainties—of the pandemic,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board.
“Hiring and retention remain defining challenges entering the new year, as CEOs’ concerns over labor shortages and wage growth rose further from the heights already recorded in Q3.”
Indeed, the job market continued to tighten in Q4, as labor shortages grew more pronounced. Even as the pace of hiring is likely to accelerate over the next 12 months—69 percent of CEOs expect to expand their workforce, up from 60 percent in Q3—filling these open positions may be a struggle: 79 percent of CEOs are now reporting difficulty finding qualified workers, up from 74 percent in Q3. As a result, the outlook for wages rose sharply in Q4, with 79 percent of CEOs expecting to increase wages by 3 percent or more over the next year, up from 66 percent.
“In the year ahead, fortune will continue to favor those companies and leaders able to nimbly navigate these new and resurgent challenges, putting into practice the hard-won lessons in resiliency that were learned over the past two years” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board.